The New Space Era: Beyond Billionaires

Space Race 2.0 🏃

Billionaire space cowboys Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson can be credited not only with starting a new era in space exploration but also with re-igniting the public’s interest in space. We have not seen today’s levels of space craze since the Apollo era of the 1960s and ’70s. I, for instance, am lucky that SpaceX decided to set up shop basically in my backyard. The effects this has had on small town Brownsville is astonishing, from sold out hotels during Starship testing to million-dollar investments in downtown revitalization. More than 50 years after Apollo 11, a new age of space exploration is starting to fire up its engines. This Space Age 2.0 is an era of exponential technological progress, driven by a desire for adventure, domination, and the survival of humanity in light of the current environmental state of our Earth. Contrary to its predecessor, Space Age 2.0 is dominated by the private sector, which is eager to put people in space to pursue their own interests and supply the demand they create. 

Whereas government-led space programs that have been around since the 1960’s focus on space-for-earth activities that are in the public’s interest, for the first time in humanity’s history, private companies are using their capital, profit motive, and high risk tolerance to take everyday citizens above the Karman line and create a space-for-space economy. This is the vision driving SpaceX, which in its few years of operation has entirely upended the rocket launch industry, securing 60% of the global commercial launch market and building the world’s largest rocket designed to ferry passengers, cargo, and fuel to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Witnessing first-hand the speed at which this company operates leaves no doubt in my mind that humans will step foot on Mars very soon. 

Let’s Talk Numbers #️⃣

As both private companies and early-stage startups reshape the industry and spearhead innovation in space tech, humans are closer to making science fiction a reality. Bank of America expects the global space industry to generate a revenue of $1.4 trillion or more by 2030, and grow to $2.7 trillion in 30 years. If you’re wondering where they got such colossal numbers, well, it’s not rocket science. When looking at the space industry’s current growth trajectory, this might not even be a bullish forecast. Despite expectations that space would be hit hard by the pandemic, 2020 still secured a record of $8.9 billion in investments. According to the Space Foundation, the global space industry grew 4.4% to $447 billion last year, and Q3 of 2021 alone saw $9.8 billion in investment activity, $3 billion more than what was invested during the same time period last year. As Dylan Taylor perfectly states, “The gold rush in space investment is just getting started.”

To Infinity and Beyond ♾️

What we are currently witnessing is initial interest in a nascent industry that has an infinite growth trajectory. To put this into perspective, let’s look at two out of hundreds of examples, one man-made and another naturally occurring: satellites and asteroids. Just as all of today’s companies are tech companies, all companies of tomorrow will be space companies. Satellites have the potential to provide value to individuals, businesses, and whole industries through data. As finance becomes fintech, agriculture becomes agritech, vehicles become autonomous, virtual reality goes mainstream, and global internet coverage becomes a possibility, there will be an exponential growth of demand for data. Fortunately, this increase in demand perfectly correlates with increasing access to space, made possible by decreasing launch costs. NASA’s Space Shuttle used to cost $25,000 per pound to launch payloads to LEO. Today, it costs $1,233 per pound with Spacex’s Falcon 9 rocket, and a mere $640 per pound with Falcon Heavy. This astonishing decrease in costs is democratizing access to space for all. 

Space can provide an infinite amount of resources, which is vital to complement our finite supply on Earth. Asteroids, for example, could provide an unlimited amount of minerals and water, and could hold the key to prolonging humanity’s life on Earth. One metal-rich Near Earth Asteroid called 1985 DA is estimated to be worth $11.65 trillion. NASA predicts that our solar system’s asteroid belt (located between Jupiter and Mars) holds $700 quintillion of resources. That’s around $100 billion for each person on Earth. If we successfully manage to mine asteroids, trillionaires will arise, humanity will become a post-scarcity species, and Earth will sigh in relief. 

Prepare for Takeoff 🚀

As with asteroid mining, most deep space ventures will take years if not decades to become operational and probably even longer to become profitable. Investors should therefore adjust their returns on investment timeline expectations. Today’s fast-paced, need-it-now society can easily cloud investors’ judgements. However, proven by history, many of the world’s greatest marvels exist because some had the vision and courage to invest today for tomorrow. Like any other cutting-edge industry, investing in space is risky. However, with great risk (hopefully) comes great reward. What sets the space industry apart is that it has no limits; humanity’s exploratory instinct will always launch us to final frontiers, which hold immense monetary potential. All I can say is that I can’t wait for the days we’ll need traffic lights in space. Until then, I'll be impatiently waiting for Starship Superheay’s first breath of fresh South Texan air.